Serie A

The season simulator flags this as one of the Serie A's highest-leverage fixtures — title, top-four and relegation odds all move on the result.

EXPECTED GOALS 1.12–1.56  ·  FAIR ODDS 3.7 / 3.8 / 2.1

The model makes Napoli 47% favourites — Elo, Dixon-Coles scorelines and squad value, priced daily until kickoff.