Premier League

SUNDAY, 23 AUGUST 2026
KICKOFF PL · 2026-27

What's at stake

STAKES 27/100

The season simulator flags this as one of the Premier League's highest-leverage fixtures — title, top-four and relegation odds all move on the result.

The model's price

1X2 · VARIANT B
Brighton 43%
Draw 27%
Aston Villa 30%

EXPECTED GOALS 1.47–1.19  ·  FAIR ODDS 2.3 / 3.7 / 3.3

The model makes Brighton 43% favourites — Elo, Dixon-Coles scorelines and squad value, priced daily until kickoff.